©BORA-hansgrohe / Stiehl Photography

Known as the maillot vert, the Green Jersey has been won by Peter Sagan the past 5 years. This year, Sagan is going for his 6th which will put him equal with Erik Zabel as the most prolific winner of the green jersey. So can anyone stop Sagan this year? Let’s have a look.

Peter Sagan ($1.42)

So everyone expects Peter Sagan to equal Erik Zabel’s record. The world champion has been in great form this year, but this years route is against him. Sagan has won the jersey by attacking and picking up points on mountain stages, but this year, the sprint points on mountain stages are before mountains, which will make it hard for him. He’ll have to consistently finish high in the sprint stages, which 7 are guaranteed and possibly 2 more.

Marcel Kittel ($3.60)

Kittel has the potential to win 7 stages – if he does, he’ll probably win the jersey. Kittel hasn’t been in that good of form this year, but with Cavendish recovering from illness, he’s still the fastest sprinter in this race.

Arnaud Demare ($15)

Demare is arguably the sprinter in form at the moment. With that said, Demare needs harder stages to excel on. Whilst he can podium on pure flat stages, he doesn’t have the pure pace of riders like Greipel, Kittel etc, but, the thing going on his side this tour is that he has a strong leadout that is dedicated to him. He has the best/most rider leadout in the race. That will count for something. He’ll need to finish top 3 in nearly every sprint stage to get the jersey which will be tough. But he has team for it.

Michael Matthews ($17)

Like Demare, Matthews needs harder stages and he’s not a pure fast sprinter like some of the others.

Andre Greipel ($18)

Greipel is fast, but he needs a leadout to capitlise as he usually gets lost. There’s a couple of stages that suit him, but he’ll need to win nearly all 7 sprint stages to contest for this jersey.

Dylan Groenewegan ($19)

Not in the same league as the others above.

Mark Cavendish ($26)

If you think Mark Cavendish is bluffing and has recovered from Glandular Fever, then this is value. If he’s at full health following the virus that kept him out of racing for 2 months, then he is a great shot at winning this jersey.

I can’t see the green jersey going to anyone else other than Kittel or Sagan.

Predictions

  1. Marcel Kittel
  2. Peter Sagan
  3. Arnaud Demare