The first mountaintop finish of the race is going to be great viewing. The GC contenders will fight it out for the win and some riders are going to get dropped – some big names. So let’s look at them.

Chris Froome ($4/$1.70) is the favourite, but should he be? He has the team that will grind things down and flush out riders one by one, but this climb doesn’t suit him. Can’t see him winning.

Richie Porte ($4.25/$1.75) has a great chance of taking this stage. He looked solid in stage 3 and this is a climb that actually suits him. If he puts in a brutal attack, he is a good chance of getting away.

Fabio Aru ($14/$3.50) is in good form. I’m not sure if he can win this stage, but he will go close. I think he’ll be stronger later in the race.

Daniel Martin ($14/$3) is not suited to this climb. He was good in stage 3, but this climb isn’t for him.

Rafal Majka ($21/$6) has come into this race in good form and it’s a climb that suits him. After his team-mate’s DQ from the race, this is a good time for him to win and to send a message. It will spur him on.

Thibaut Pinot ($21/$6) knows these roads as he lives here. He trains on the climb and they will ride past his house today. With that said, he admits he doesn’t have the legs. Could it be a bluff? After a tough Giro, I don’t think so. We’ll see him later in the race. Not now.

Nairo Quintana ($21/$4.50) is suited to this climb and he’ll attack. If he can stay with Porte, he will outsprint him for the win.

Jakob Fuglsang ($23/$5.50) is in good form, but today is all about Aru. I can’t see him attacking.

Romain Bardet ($29/$7) crashed the other day. Does he have the legs to do something today? He’s capable of it.

Pierre Rolland ($34/$9) can only win from the break. The break will be on a tight leash tonight. Look for him to shine later on.

Esteban Chaves ($41/$11) is suited to this climb. Orica will attack today. They have both Chaves and Yates. One of them could do it.

Alberto Contador ($41/$8) will attack but is he strong enough to get away?

Simon Yates ($67/$15) is a good chance. He’s one that will attack and could find his way solo to the line. A genuine chance.

Prediction

I think Simon Yates will take the stage.

  1. Simon Yates
  2. Richie Porte
  3. Chris Froome
  4. Rafal Majka
  5. Nairo Quintana
  6. Alberto Contador
  7. Fabio Aru
  8. George Bennett
  9. Andrew Talansky
  10. Dan Martin