Article submitted by twitter user @cyclingbolar

Stage 5: McLaren Vale to Willunga Hill (151.5km)

So we’ve got the Queen Stage.

GC is as follows;

  1. Peter Sagan
  2. Daryl Impey +0.02
  3. Jay McCarthy +0.09
  4. Luis Leon Sanchez + 0.10
  5. Diego Ulissi +0.14
  6. All other contenders on the same time as Ulissi

I can safely tell you now that Peter Sagan and Daryl Impey will not be winning this race overall. They will lose too much time to the stage winner who is a mountain goat. Luis Leon Sanchez, you can rule him out too.

The winner of the race overall will be between Jay McCarthy and the contenders that are 14 seconds down.

So let’s look at the favourites for the stage.

Richie Porte – Richie will start as favourite. He’s been unstoppable on this climb the last 4 years and there’s nothing to suggest he won’t be again. With a 10 second bonus on the line, all Porte needs to do is win the stage to take Ochre, that’s if McCarthy finishes 2nd. Porte needs to beat McCarthy by 2 seconds. Porte was impressive yesterday, including when he chased down Sagan. He will be hard to beat.

Jay McCarthy – McCarthy has been looking good all week and he has Sagan who will bury himself for him. People are buying into the hope that Sagan will win overall. He won’t. He is burying himself for McCarthy tomorrow.

Luis Leon Sanchez – I don’t think Sanchez can go with the winning move.

Diego Ulissi – Riding well, but again, the only way he’ll win this stage is if he sticks with the climbers and can outsprint them at the end.

The riders that looked insanely good on stage 4, are as follows.

Richie Porte
Rohan Dennis
George Bennett
Gorka Izagirre
Robert Gesink

Rohan Dennis – we can rule him out. He will be covering moves and burying himself for Porte tomorrow.

George Bennett – the kiwi looked strong and looked like he could match Porte. But he matched Porte on the flat when attacks happened. Up a climb that Porte has dominated for a long time is another story.

Gorka Izagirre – Izagirre is the strongest rider from Bahrain-Merida and he will be their protected rider tomorrow. Ion Izagirre and Domenico Pozzovivo are going to attack to try and isolate Porte, but I think Dennis and Gerrans will be strong enough to shut these down.

Robert Gesink – put in a hard attack yesterday. Could be a danger to Porte.

I can’t see anyone else winning the stage. The stage winner and Tour winner will be one of the riders that I mention in with a chance.

In the end, I just think Porte will be too strong. Not only will Porte win the stage, but he will take the GC. His rivals haven’t gained enough time on him. I can’t see McCarthy and Ulissi staying with Porte when he launches his attack.

Predictions

  1. Richie Porte
  2. Gorka Izagirre +0.15
  3. George Bennett +0.15
  4. Jay McCarthy + 0.18
  5. Diego Ulissi +0.18

Therefore

No odds are out with Unibet yet, but these are the bets I will be on.

Stage Winner: Richie Porte
Stage Top 3: George Bennett

Overall Winner: Richie Porte

Richie Porte is winning this race.