Article submitted by twitter user @cyclingbolar
With the Commonwealth Games getting underway on Thursday, it’s time to look at the track events.
MEN’S TRACK CYCLING
Matthew Glaetzer is the favourite heading into the sprint. After becoming World Champion for the first time in February, the Australian will be hoping to become a Commonwealth Games Gold Medalist.
Hot on his tail will be Scotsman, Jack Carlin. The 20 year old won silver behind Glaetzer at the World’s and the final will most likely feature them again. It’s hard to see Carlin reversing the result here, but make no mistake, he is the next big thing in track sprinting so Glaetzer needs to make most of it now because in four years time, Carlin will be even better.
It’s hard to see the final being anything other than these two, but there are three New Zealand cyclists in Ethan Mitchell, Eddie Dawkins and Sam Webster, whom, on their day, can be fighting for gold and the latter being the defending champion. Scot Callum Skinner and Australian Patrick Constable also can’t be dismissed.
Looking at everything how it stands, I can’t look past Glaetzer and Carlin fighting it out but look out for Webster. Don’t be shocked if he wins this.
GOLD: Matthew Glaetzer
SILVER: Jack Carlin
BRONZE: Sam Webster
The Keirin is always a wide open event and this year it’s no different. Glaetzer is the defending champion, but there is competition. As mentioned, Carlin is in good form and can win, and then you have Canadian Hugo Barette, Kiwi’s Edward Dawkins and Sam Webster, English rider Joseph Truman and Welshman Lewis Oliva. Webster is the defending champion.
There is one, rider, however, that I think will win. Whilst Glaetzer and Carlin will be featuring prominently in the sprint, Malaysian Azizulhasni Awang will be the one that springs up here. He is always good in the Keirin and he is the World Champion from 2017 and he is the one I think that will take gold here.
GOLD: Azizulhasni Awang
SILVER: Sam Webster
BRONZE: Matthew Glaetzer
1km Time Trial
Glaetzer should be too strong here. Callum Skinner, Joseph Truman and Dylan Kennett should be fighting out the minor medals.
GOLD: Matthew Glaetzer
SILVER: Callum Skinner
BRONZE: Dylan Kennett
This will be a great race, but the Kiwi trio of Eddie Dawkins, Ethan Mitchell and Sam Webster have dominated this event over the last year or two and are going to be insanely hard to beat. They have consistency across the entire three of them and even though Glaetzer is the faster sprinter, Patrick Constable and Jacob Schmid are a bit too raw.
Australia might not get into the gold medal race to face New Zealand. Scotland also have a great team with Jack Carlin and Callum Skinner leading the way with probably John Archibald the third member. Canada featuring Hugo Barrette and Stefan Ritter are also outsiders to medal, but unlike New Zealand, these two nations don’t have 3 solid sprinters. We also can’t discount England either with Philip Hindes leading the way with Joseph Truman and Ryan Owens backing him up, but hard to see them get gold.
On paper, this is New Zealand’s race to lose.
GOLD: New Zealand
This should be a great battle between Australia, England and New Zealand.
At the World Championships last year, Australia with a team of Sam Welsford, Cameron Meyer, Alexander Porter and Nicholas Yallouris won gold with a time of 3:51:503. They have Leigh Howard or Jordan Kerby they could also bring into the team.
That year they beat a New Zealand team of Regan Gough, Pieter Bulling, Dylan Kennett and Nicholas Kergozou who recorded 3:53.979
At the Word’s this year, Australia didn’t field a team but an English team of Edward Clancy, Kian Emadi, Ethan Hayter and Charlie Tanfield put in a time of 3.53.389
New Zealand didn’t qualify for the final and they had Campbell Stewart, Regan Gough, Dylan Kennett and Nicholas Kergozou. Their time was 3:58.932
England won’t be going in with the same team as Clancy isn’t here, so that spot will be taken by Dan Bigham or Harry Tanfield, brother of Charlie. So without Clancy, it is hard to see them replicating that time they did a month ago. New Zealand can easily go faster than the time they set.
This all points to Australia winning gold, with perhaps a time under 3:52. The battle to face Australia in the final, however, is going to be a close one. I think New Zealand will edge them and in the Bronze medal race, England will win, but do a faster time than New Zealand in the gold medal race.
GOLD: Australia – 3:52:230
SILVER: New Zealand – 3:55:430
BRONZE: England – 3:54.938
This is probably the race I’m looking forward to the most.
Jordan Kerby, Sam Welsford and Kelland O’Brien will be flying the flag for Australia. Charlie Tanfield will be flying the flag for England. The medals are between these four riders. Maybe Dan Bigham could squeeze in.
12 months ago, you would say Australia would most likely take Gold and Silver with Bronze a possibility too, but the last twelve months, the emergence of Charlie Tanfield has put a dent in this.
There is an outside chance Jack Bobridge’s world record of 4:10:534 could be broken here. It may not happen this year, but it will most likely happen in the next couple of years, and there is one rider who is on track at doing this. Charlie Tanfield.
Over the last few months, Tanfield has been putting up blistering times. In December, in Grenchen, he was on track for a 4:12/4:13 until he caught his brother. Then, in January in Minsk, he became the 2nd fastest brit, recording 4:12.253, which was 1.7 seconds off the world record….faster than Bradley Wiggins. A week later at the British Nationals, he clocked 3:07 at the 3000m mark, meaning he was on track for a 4:10/4:11 before he caught Bigham, which ended the race. At the world championships a month later, he recorded 4:15:930.
Jordan Kerby has gone faster than Tanfield at last year’s World Championships on his way to the rainbow jersey. The time he posted in qualifying was 4:12:172. In the final, he posted 4:17:068. At the National Championships this year, he posted 4:13:154 on the way to a win.
Then you have Sam Welsford who has put up times of 4:15.886 and 4:14.189 over the last 12 months. If all riders ride to their best, then these three will battle the medals. Kerby has been focused on the road the last 12 months, only focusing more on the track the last 6 months, which could go against him. Tanfield, however, if he reproduces what he was doing in December and January, the gold medal is his.
Looking at the times, I can see Tanfield taking gold here. 3.07 after 3000m is insane and if he replicates that here, he is not getting beaten.
GOLD: Charlie Tanfield
SILVER: Jordan Kerby
BRONZE: Sam Welsford
This is Cameron Meyer’s event. He has decided to focus on the track after a brief hiatus in cycling 2 years ago. He is a 5 time world champion in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2018. He also won gold at the 2010 Commonwealth Games. He looks to be unstoppable here. Mark Stewart will give him a run for his money, but can’t see him being strong enough.
GOLD: Cameron Meyer
SILVER: Mark Stewart
BRONZE: Ethan Hayter
Don’t know the start list, but Cameron Meyer has the ability to win this solo, and Leigh Howard as well, but the latter could go for the sprint. Northern Ireland’s Marc Potts is also a good chance as is Scot Mark Stewart.
GOLD: Cameron Meyer
SILVER: Leigh Howard
BRONZE: Marc Potts
WOMEN’S TRACK CYCLING
We will kick off the Women’s team pursuit. It is going to be a great race with Australia starting as favourites.
Australia’s team of Amy Cure, Rebecca Wiasak, Ashlee Akundinoff, Georgia Baker, Annette Edmondson and Alexandra Manly is rock solid. They have options to choose from. 2 years ago they managed a 4.16 at the World Championships. On paper they are favourites, but anything can happen and there are some rock solid teams.
England are a huge danger to Australia. Rebecca Raybould, Eleanor Dickinson and Emily Neilson are solid riders. Great Britain did 4.16’s and under 4.20’s the last two years with 2 of these members, so if the other two that England use are solid enough, we could be seeing them upset the host nation.
New Zealand consistently do around 4.20-4.23 and have the following riders to choose from; Ellesse Andrews, Rushlee Buchanan, Michaela Drummond, Kristie James, Racquel Sheath.
Canada also can’t be discounted. Allison Beveridge, Ariane Bonhomme, Annie Forman-Mackey, Kinley Gibson and Stephanie Roorda consistently do around 4.22-4.24. Now whilst they don’t get higher, that time could be enough to medal.
On paper, this is Australia’s race to lose, but those other 3 nations will have an intriguing battle for the minor medals. I wouldn’t be shocked if England can pull this off, but I am going to stay safe and go with the home team.
BRONZE: New Zealand
Ashlee Ankudinoff is making her return. Rebecca Wiasak has gone well the last few years and Amy Cure is constantly around the medals and will be looking to go two better than her Bronze in Glasgow.
You then have Katie Archibald from Scotland who was 4th in Glasgow.
New Zealand’s Kirstie James cannot be discounted and of course the England pair of Ellie Dickinson and Emily Nelson is strong.
Canadian’s Kinley Gibson and Annie Foreman-Mackey could also feature in the medals.
At the world championships James posted 3.34, Dickinson 3.34, Nelson 3.35 and Foreman-Mackey 3.36.
At the track world cup in Los Angeles, Ankudinoff posted a 3.32 and a 3.35 in the final winning silver. In Cali, she posted a 3.31.7 winning silver and Rebecca Wiasak won bronze with a 3.31.1.
In the Nationals, Wiasak won bronze with a 3.34 and Ankudinoff won gold with a 3.31.0 and Amy Cure silver with 3.31.7
In the World’s 2 years ago, Ankudinoff recorded a 3.29 with Wiasak a 3.30. Also in that race was Archibald with a 3.31.
As you can see looking at the times, if Ankudinoff rides to her best, she should take Gold. But it is going to be close between Ankudinoff, Wiasak, Cure and Archibald I think. I think Ankudinoff takes it.
GOLD: Ashlee Ankudinoff
SILVER: Katie Archibold
BRONZE: Rebecca Wiasak
500m Time Trial
We head to the sprint events now starting with the time trial. Australian Stephanie Morton won silver 4 years ago and will look to go one better, but English cyclist Katy Marchant will be the one that could stand in her way. Hard to see anyone else contending. Kaarle McCulloch, Lauren Bate and Natasha Hansen should all be battling for Bronze behind those two.
GOLD: Stephanie Morton
SILVER: Katy Marchant
BRONZE: Emma Cumming
After winning silver at the last two world championships, Stephanie Morton comes in as favourite, but this is a wide open event as anything can happen. Kaarle McCulloch is also a threat.
We then look at the New Zealand duo of Natasha Hansen and Emma Cumming and then the English duo of Katy Marchant and Lauren Bate. All 6 of these riders have a good case for gold. Then you have Welsh cyclist Rachel James and Canadian Amelia Walsh outside chances for Bronze.
In the end though, I think Marchant will win out.
GOLD: Katy Marchant
SILVER: Stephanie Morton
BRONZE: Natasha Hansen
Can’t look past the Australian duo of McCulloch/Morton here. They should be able to do under 33. I don’t think the English or Kiwi pair do that. Canada is a sneaky chance for a minor medal too.
It’s a wide open race. You can make a case for Morton, Marchant, Hansen, McCulloch, Cumming and James, or even someone else. I’ll go with Hansen
GOLD: Natasha Hansen
SILVER: Stephanie Morton
BRONZE: Rachel James
Welsh Star Elinor Baker, a silver medalist at the last two world championships is the one to beat. She won’t have it easy as Amy Cure can win this solo. Likewise Annette Edmondson or Ashlee Ankudinoff. Katie Archibald, Allison Beveridge and Emily Kay also can’t be dismissed. I can’t look past Baker here. Look out for England’s Rebecca Raybould who has started to come on from the junior ranks.
GOLD: Elinor Baker
SILVER: Amy Cure
BRONZE: Alisson Beveridge
Again, you can’t look past last year’s world champion Elinor Baker. She should go in as favourite. Amy Cure, Katie Archibold, Emily Nelson or Emily Kay can also feature here. I can see this a double gold for Baker.
GOLD: Elinor Baker
SILVER: Katie Archibold
BRONZE: Emily Nelson
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