Article submitted by twitter user @cyclingbolar
So we have a long 231km stage today. It’s a bit undulating but only has one classified climb. There are a lot of open roads and there is a possibility of cross winds again. If there is, except Quick Step Floors to put the hammer down again.
The finale is not that technical either. There’s a few big roundabouts in the final 10km, and a sharp turn with 2km to go, but other than that, it should be a fast finish. The final km averages at around 3% with a 600m @ 4% gradient in there. So if you start the sprint early, you will get overpowered which makes the lead out important.
We should see a bunch sprint today but don’t rule out the possibility of the break surviving. Teams are showing hints at letting Quick Step do all the work because to beat Gaviria they need to tire them out so he can’t get a solid lead out so if these games are being played, Quick Step might say, “we have our two stage wins so if you are not helping, we are not riding.”. Quick-Step really don’t need to chase today – so if no one helps them – don’t be surprised if they shut up shop.
Most likely though, this is a bunch sprint.
Fernando Gaviria ($2.20/$1.30) – his lead-out has been insane. He’s won 2 stages and has looked the fastest here. Greipel nearly got him the other day but Gaviria was just way too strong.
Peter Sagan ($4.25/$1.65) – Will be thereabouts but won’t win.
Dylan Groenewegen ($5.50/$2) – He doesn’t have a proper lead out so if he can’t find the right wheel to follow, he won’t figure. Not really the stage for him.
Marcel Kittel ($7/$2.15) – Has shown he has the speed and power, he just can’t find the right position. That won’t change today.
Arnaud Demare ($11/$2.50) – Has been disappointing thus far. Was up there for one stage, but his team seems to get lost. If his team does the perfect lead out, then this is perfect for Demare.
Andre Greipel ($13/$3) – This finish is good for Greipel and he has the lead out. He just needs to go at the right time. He has shown he can hold it for a bit. Just needs to not make the move early.
Mark Cavendish ($17/$5) – like Groupama FDJ, Dimension Data have gotten lost a lot and Cavendish can’t find the right position. They really need to step up today and deliver. Not sure Cavendish has the form to win here even if get a solid lead out, but they need a result.
Sonny Colbrelli ($21/$5.50) – Has been up there. Whilst this incline will help him, it’s not hard enough for him to challenge for victory.
Alexander Kristoff ($26/$6) – This is perfect for an in-form Kristoff. Is he in form? Yes, but not at his best but he has been consistent enough so far to feature.
If the break does indeed survive, then look for the non attacking French riders to be more involved as most French riders will be looking at the break for stage 8.
This will be a bunch sprint. Gaviria, in his first Tour de France, especially after yesterday, may be tired.
- Arnaud Demare
- Andre Greipel
- Fernando Gaviria
Bets I’m on at Crownbet Australia
Alexander Kristoff over John Degenkolb @ $2.20 (5)
Arnaud Demare top 3 @ $2.50 (3)
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