After 3 hard days in the alps, the sprinters legs will be burning. This would usually be a sprint stage, but I think a lot of teams will be content to let the break take this and send their domestiques up the road.
What also adds to this is the withdrawal of the sprinters over the last few days.
Marcel Kittel (Katusha), Dylan Groenewegean (Lotto NL Jumbo), Fernando Gaviria (Quick-Step Floors), Mark Cavendish (Dimension Data), Andre Greipel (Lotto Soudal).
That leaves the following fast men.
Arnaud Demare (Groupama FDJ), Alexander Kristoff (UAE Team Emirates), Peter Sagan (Bora Hansgrohe), John Degenkolb (Trek Segafredo), Tomas Boudat (Direct Energie), Christophe Laporte (Cofidis), Timothy Dupont and Andrea Pasqualon (Wanty Group Gobert)
There’s certainly enough teams there interested in chasing it down but will their teams be strong enough when you look at below and who may be in the break.
Quick Step Floors – Three ideal stage hunters here in Philippe Gilbert, Niki Terpstra and Yves Lampaert. All 3 have a genuine claim on this stage and all are strong.
Sunweb – Possibly Soren Kragh Anderson.
Mitchelton Scott – Jack Bauer the go ahead to try to win a stage.
BMC – Simon Gerrans will be the perfect rider from this team. Maybe Stefan Kung whom could time trial away from everyone later on in the stage.
Bora Hansgrohe – Marcus Burghardt or even Peter Sagan himself. If Sagan is there, he will be favourite for the stage.
Dimension Data – Reinardt Janse van Rensburg was excellent on stage 9. He should be there. Also Edvald Boasson-Hagen can give it a go from this team. Can’t win it from a bunch sprint.
Katusha – Nils Politt will be the best man for them.
Lotto Soudal – Jasper de Buyst or Thomas De Gendt. The latter by this stage will be itching for the stage win.
Trek Segafredo – Toms Skujins will be perfect for this stage. Has a couple of wins already this year and can attack late from a break. They might believe in John Degenkolb though.
Direct Energie – Sylvain Chavanel has probably eyed this stage as a chance to get what would most likely be his last Tour de France win. Damien Gaudin the other.
Team Fortuneo Samsic – Elie Gesbert and Kevin Ledanois have been prominent in breaks. Will probably try here.
Groupama FDJ – Need a stage win. Arthur Vichot or Tobias Ludvigsson will be their guys for the break or Demare themselves or maybe they are strong enough to set it up for Demare?
I am going to stick with my gut and say the break will take this. I think the peloton will want an easy day despite the fact that this and stage 18 and 21 are the only days left for the sprinters.
Bets I’m on at Crownbet Australia
It was another winning day yesterday.
I’m just going to try some breakaway lottery tickets today
Toms Skujins @ $251
Silvan Dillier @ $201
Marcus Burghardt @ $201
Jack Bauer @ $151
Simon Gerrans @ $126
Soren Kragh Anderson @ $101