Article submitted by twitter user @cyclingbolar
It was a great day yesterday with Van Poppel grabbing second and Aberasturi beating Soto.
Onto today. As you can see it’s an undulating stage. It is not one for the sprinters. That final climb and final 15km is on a narrow road so positioning is vital. There’s a couple double digit gradients too. It’s not an easy climb and then it just keeps rising to the finish.
Alejandro Valverde $7/$2.20 – It is his home region. We could see similar to stage two where Valverde and Kwiatkowski sprint for victory. It is going to be hard, however for Movistar to control the stage. Being his home region, they should chase a break down and if they do, Valverde is the man to beat.
Michael Kwiatkowski $8/$2.50 – Looked strong on Stage 2 and his form coming into the race has been sound. With that said, I think the amount of racing he’s done the last two months is catching up with him. I am going to be a brave man to call it. He won’t be top 3. Have to get on the @jamiehaughey level with his great calls.
Omar Fraile $15/$3.50 – If Fraile is up there he does have the speed to match. With that said, I think he will try for the breakaway today as the finish is suited to him perfectly.
Simon Yates $34/$7 – For Yates to win, he needs to go solo. On stage 4 we saw him put in a massive dig and only Emanuel Buchmann could get close to him. On these narrow roads, if he gets a gap, he is going to be hard to bring back.
Tony Gallopin $51/$13 – Is suited to this type of finish. Maybe podium. Won’t win unless he solos.
Laurens De Plus $101/$23 – As you saw on stage 2, he put in a massive attack late and got caught late and hung onto third. He’s mentioned that he and Mas are going to keep doing this. Enric Mas is $251/$51
Wilco Kelderman $126/$26 – Was up there on stage two. This finish does suit him.
Rigoberto Uran $151/$29 – Looks to be in great shape and can contend here.
I am going to mention this. Who is going to help Movistar chase knowing that Valverde is the one to beat? I don’t think many teams will. The guys that can challenge him are looking to the overall and will want to preserve energy. So Movistar could be left doing all the work. FDJ will help them to keep Molard in the leaders jersey, but that won’t be enough. Sky won’t chase. No one will want Valverde picking up bonus seconds.
I will mention just some of the stronger riders we’ve seen. Thomas De Gendt, Alessandro de Marchi, Pierre Rolland, Alexandre Geniez, Davide Villela, Nikita Stanlov, Bauke Mollema as well as Pello Bilbao and Dylan Teuns who may try.
As for who wins, I think the break will make it. I am going to go with Omar Fraile taking victory from the break.
- Omar Fraile
- Pierre Rolland
- Davide Villela
Going to put a few bucks on a few long shots. Remember, I nearly bagged Mollema on Stage 4 @ $67
Odds found at Bet Easy
Nikita Stalnov: $501/$101
Alexandre Geniez: $101/$23
Pello Bilbao: $81/$21
Davide Villela: $81/$21
Bauke Mollema: $51/$13
Pierre Rolland $41/$11
Omar Fraile @ $15
Wilco Kelderman over Thibaut Pinot @ $1.75 (8)