Article submitted by twitter user @cyclingbolar
Expected sprint finish today. What is expected today? Break. Longest stage of the race is too hard for the sprinters teams to control and there is no way GC riders will control it. It is up and down all day. The break is going to win this by at least 5 minutes (could be more depending on the makeup of the breakaway).
So let’s have a look at the form riders whom have shown something. They are the ones you look to.
Ben King $67 – King has won two stages and has looked the strongest. This stage suits him and it wouldn’t surprise if he’s in the break again. Team Dimension Data may look at Cummings, but Cummings has done nothing all year and doesn’t warrant consideration. King is their man.
Speaking of Dimension Data, I had a dream last night that Louis Meintjes won a stage. He is 5 minutes down on GC, so he may not be allowed up the road, but I thought I would mention it.
Pierre Rolland $41 – The Frenchman has looked strong and just been tactically inept. He needs to get his tactics right and he needs to attack early and try and solo to the line. The final rise is good enough to do that, if not before. He needs to be bold. If an attack goes early, he needs to go with it because we have seen early attacks go clear as evident of the stage that Simon Clarke won.
Bauke Mollema $41 – The only way he can win is solo. Depending on the makeup of the break, he needs to attack at the right time.
Simon Clarke $51 – This stage suits him.
Now we look at riders that have been in one break and not necessarily as strong as the others.
Floris De Tier $81 – Has been in a few. This is a good stage for him.
Alessandro De Marchi $29 – Has looked strong. If he’s in the right group at the end, he can win. He just needs to make sure he is not in a group that features someone faster than him, and he needs to also not do so much work.
Lluis Mas Bonet $81 – He looked strong the other day at stages. The stage was just too tough for him. This is easier, and he does pack a bit of a sprint. Caja Rural will be active in this stage. Jonathan Lastras and Alex Aranburu are their other hopes.
Dylan Teuns $21 – Will look to get in the break again. The stage suits his characteristics.
Thomas De Gendt $26 – You have to mention him.
Alexandre Geniez $67 – Should be active again.
Lukas Postlberger $101 – Was strong yesterday. Wouldn’t surprise me to see him try and he can win this stage.
Andrey Amador $201 – Movistar will have a rider up the road. Amador looks to be their man. Maybe Nelson Oliveira @ $126
Now we look at other riders.
Omar Fraile $10 – He is targeting stages later in the race. It’s hard to tell if this is the stage he goes for. He is feeling better each day following his crash, but I think it may be too early. Instead Astana might have Andrey Zeits $401, Dario Cataldo $126, Pello Bilbao $81 or Davide Villela @ $67
Vincenzo Nibali $67 – Is targeting stages. You always have to mention him when there is a break stage. Think it’s too early though.
Tiejs Benoot @ $41 – This stage suits him. Lotto Soudal are looking for stage wins. Victor Campenaerts $41 is also their other option.
You have to go with the rider in form. Assuming he isn’t too fatigued, this stage has Ben King written all over it to take his third victory.
- Ben King
- Alessandro De Marchi
- Alexandre Geniez
Odds found at Bet Easy
Here are my 8 lotto numbers.
Tiejs Benoot @ $41
Victor Campenaerts @ $41
Simon Clarke @ $51
Ben King @ $67
Floris De Tier @ $81
Lukas Postlberger @ $101
Andrey Amador @ $201
Louis Meintjes @ $501 (Trust your dreams)